Simon Says: " Sub-prime Lender Meltdown, Foreclosures Everywhere-- What's Really Happening Here on the Westside?"

Several evenings ago I walked past a group of mencan do to resist foreclosing.
near a local coffee shop at 9th Street and Wilshire inThe number of homeowners who purchased
Santa Monica, talking excitedly about the sub-primeproperties on the Westside of Los Angeles with
mortgage industry "meltdown." One of the gentlemensub-prime mortgages is estimated to be under 5%. My
was sure it meant a significant increase inpersonal mortgage broker has been in business for the
foreclosures. And another man said that he waspast 15 years. He has only done one loan with New
looking forward to finding some great deals on housesCentury, the largest sub-prime lender to close it's doors.
he was going to purchase. The way they were talkingOur housing inventory in Santa Monica is very low.
I began to get the impression that Los Angeles wasOnly 197 houses and condos are currently for sale.
about to be littered with homeowners down on theirLet's say there are 15,000 homeowner residences in
luck, losing their homes to the bank.Santa Monica and 5% of them are owned by
All of the geniuses who had sat out the "ridiculous" risesub-prime borrowers. If they were all in default at the
in property values over the past six years, were aboutnational rate of .5%, then we would have about four
to be finally proven correct. Dozens of presumablynew homes for sale. If that number tripled, we would
well-heeled yuppies were about to find themselves inhave about twelve new homes for sale. We are
the bread line with the other homeless in Palisadescertainly not entering a time of crisis.
Park. Disillusioned men and women would be lookingReal estate values like mortgage defaults is a
out over the sunset, somberly enjoying their mealsgeographic issue. Los Angeles has a foreclosure rate
courtesy of the local food bank. Their eyes gazing outof only .1% above the nationwide average. This April,
over the glittering Pacific Ocean towards Malibu,Los Angeles had the lowest foreclosure rate of the
dreaming of the day they could get their home back.top five metropolitan areas in the nation, only 1 out of
Well, that's not going to happen and here's why.every 997 households is in foreclosure. In Florida this
Currently, only about .5% of sub-prime borrowers areMarch, the rate was 1 out of every 278 households.
foreclosing on their homes nationwide, while about 13%There are things that can kill real estate values: war,
are late on payments. That is just one in 200natural disasters, economic calamity and the
sub-prime homeowners who are actually inconcurrent closing of law firms, hospitals and
foreclosure. The fact that more than one in ten is latebiotechnology and entertainment industry companies.
on their payments is testimony to the reason why theyHowever, for now, a couple dozen sub-prime lenders
were sub-prime borrowers in the first place. Whilethat feed on the financially disenfranchised is not going
many of these people aren't too good at balancingto have any effect on our local real estate market.
their checkbooks, there are many things a homeowner